Experts from Queen Mary give their initial reactions to the election results
Professor of Politics
Can the Conservatives come back? There’s nothing inevitable any of the parties surviving but people have been writing off one or more of the main parties ever since the early 1960s, when it was claimed demographics meant Labour could never win again, only for them to do so in 1964. After the Conservatives won their fourth consecutive victory in 1992, there was again lots of talk about how Britain was now a one-party state, only for Labour to go on to win their greatest ever landslide five years later. During the Blair and Brown years we were told the Conservatives could never win again, but they did. Indeed, you don’t even have to go back that far. Just five years ago, in 2019, people claimed Labour had lost some parts of the country forever and it looked as if the Conservatives were set for decades of rule – and instead Labour have bounced straight back. What the electorate giveth, it can take away. The Conservatives discovered that last night. Labour will too, in time.
Can the Conservatives come back? There’s nothing inevitable any of the parties surviving but people have been writing off one or more of the main parties ever since the early 1960s, when it was claimed demographics meant Labour could never win again, only for them to do so in 1964.
After the Conservatives won their fourth consecutive victory in 1992, there was again lots of talk about how Britain was now a one-party state, only for Labour to go on to win their greatest ever landslide five years later. During the Blair and Brown years we were told the Conservatives could never win again, but they did. Indeed, you don’t even have to go back that far. Just five years ago, in 2019, people claimed Labour had lost some parts of the country forever and it looked as if the Conservatives were set for decades of rule – and instead Labour have bounced straight back. What the electorate giveth, it can take away. The Conservatives discovered that last night. Labour will too, in time.
Reader in Comparative Politics
The gap between vote share and seats is not a flaw, but a feature of the FPTP system. The UK has an increasingly fragmented party system, but the electoral system does its best to mask it. That said, people do not vote in isolation, they do so in the context of a system that rewards tactical voting and strategic campaigning. Labour did very well in managing that system through brutal strategic campaigning. The other party that did very well in terms of strategic campaigning were the Liberal Democrats. They were effective in taking advantage of the Conservative decline and the surge of tactical voting. A seat majority of 174 means that there is a lot of space for passing legislation, but also nowhere to hide when it comes to policy failures. The new government has attempted to under promise to over deliver, but that cannot be a campaign slogan anymore. In hist first speech as PM, Starmer was clear to emphasise stability, moderation, and trust as his key drivers. That is a refreshing change from the turmoil of the last five years. There is a lot of debate about the rise of the far-right considering the vote share for Reform. That is, in my view, a wrong way of putting it. The far-right rose back in 2019 with the arrival of Boris Johnson and his unlikely coalition within the Conservatives. They have been in power since then, with the Conservative Party drifting more and more into the far-right. The main difference is that voters have moved away from the Tories in this election, thanks to the popularity of Nigel Farage. The four Reform seats should be seen in combination of a number of key figures within the Conservative party that retained their seats, such as Kemi Badenoch.
The gap between vote share and seats is not a flaw, but a feature of the FPTP system. The UK has an increasingly fragmented party system, but the electoral system does its best to mask it. That said, people do not vote in isolation, they do so in the context of a system that rewards tactical voting and strategic campaigning. Labour did very well in managing that system through brutal strategic campaigning.
The other party that did very well in terms of strategic campaigning were the Liberal Democrats. They were effective in taking advantage of the Conservative decline and the surge of tactical voting.
A seat majority of 174 means that there is a lot of space for passing legislation, but also nowhere to hide when it comes to policy failures. The new government has attempted to under promise to over deliver, but that cannot be a campaign slogan anymore. In hist first speech as PM, Starmer was clear to emphasise stability, moderation, and trust as his key drivers. That is a refreshing change from the turmoil of the last five years.
There is a lot of debate about the rise of the far-right considering the vote share for Reform. That is, in my view, a wrong way of putting it. The far-right rose back in 2019 with the arrival of Boris Johnson and his unlikely coalition within the Conservatives. They have been in power since then, with the Conservative Party drifting more and more into the far-right. The main difference is that voters have moved away from the Tories in this election, thanks to the popularity of Nigel Farage. The four Reform seats should be seen in combination of a number of key figures within the Conservative party that retained their seats, such as Kemi Badenoch.
Senior Lecturer in British Politics and Foreign Policy
The size of Labour's majority, despite a relatively low vote share, reflects both the challenge and the opportunity facing the new government. On the one hand, the new government needs to deliver. People need to feel better off five years from now, otherwise that large majority might melt away quite quickly. On the other hand, it will face few political constraints. Any policy supported by most Labour MPs will pass through parliament. Where does all this lead us? Keir Starmer will have to be bold if he is to achieve his goal of restoring the public's trust in politics...and if he is willing to be bold, he will be powerful enough to deliver.
The size of Labour's majority, despite a relatively low vote share, reflects both the challenge and the opportunity facing the new government.
On the one hand, the new government needs to deliver. People need to feel better off five years from now, otherwise that large majority might melt away quite quickly. On the other hand, it will face few political constraints. Any policy supported by most Labour MPs will pass through parliament.
Where does all this lead us? Keir Starmer will have to be bold if he is to achieve his goal of restoring the public's trust in politics...and if he is willing to be bold, he will be powerful enough to deliver.
For media information, contact: