With just one week to go until polling day, Elizabeth Simon asks what our latest Savanta poll of the London electorate tells us about the General Election and the issues that will shape how Londoners vote.
A new poll commissioned by the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London and fielded by Savanta, from 10-18th June 2024, suggests that the majority of Londoners (52 per cent) would like to see the upcoming general election result in some kind of Labour led government; with 40 per cent of Londoners saying their preferred outcome is a Labour majority.
It suggests that if the general election were to be held tomorrow, 55 per cent of Londoners would vote Labour, 22 per cent would vote Conservative, 10 per cent would vote for the Liberal Democrats, 8 per cent for Reform UK, 5 per cent for the Greens and 1 per cent for other parties or candidates. This gives Labour a commanding 33-point lead over the Conservatives in London – a lead that is considerably larger than the 20-or-so point lead they are holding over the Conservatives in national polls, and one which underscores the dominance of the Labour Party in the capital.
Issues that will shape Londoners’ vote choices on July 4th
There are several key issues that will influence how London votes on July 4th. When asked which issues were the most important to them in determining which party they would support at the upcoming election, approximately half of Londoners who are likely to vote placed the NHS and inflation and the cost of living in their ‘top three’. Other popular ‘vote-motivating’ issues for Londoners are the economy, housing, crime and immigration – all of which appeared in the ‘top three’ most important issues in determining which party to support at the upcoming election for at least a quarter of Londoners.
It will be concerning for the Labour Party’s nearest rivals in London – the Conservative Party – that Labour tend to be seen as having a better plan, policy or approach on all of these key ‘vote-motivating’ issues, than they do. While 48 per cent of Londoners who are likely to vote believe Labour has the better plan, policy or approach when it comes to the NHS and housing, and 41 per cent say the same of crime and inflation and the cost of living, only between 17 and 22 per cent of Londoners who are likely to vote say the same of the Conservative Party in relation to these issues.
10 per cent of Londoners say the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is one of the top three issues that is important to them in determining which party they will support at the 2024 General Election. This figure rises significantly among several key social and demographic groups, including the youngest Londoners, where it stands at 24 per cent and among Muslim Londoners, where it stands at 33 per cent.
On this issue, we find that just over half of Londoners (54 per cent) would support a policy that ends the sale of arms to Israel for the duration of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict; with 38 per cent saying they would ‘strongly support’ this and 16 per cent saying they would ‘support’ it. This compares to just 18 per cent of Londoners who say they would oppose this policy (7 per cent ‘somewhat oppose’ and 10 per cent ‘strongly oppose’), 20 per cent who say they would neither support nor oppose this and 9 per cent who don’t know.
Our poll not only shows that there is a desire among many of the city’s residents for a scaling up of sanctions against Israel but that of those Londoners who feel this way, and are likely to vote at the July 4th contest, almost a fifth (18 per cent) feel that none of the political parties have set out a satisfactory approach to handling this conflict. This compares to 35 per cent of this group who believe the Labour Party has the better plan, policy or approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 11 per cent who believe the Conservative Party do, 7 per cent who believe the Liberal Democrats do, 12 per cent who believe another party does and 16 per cent who said they did not know which political party, if any, had the better plan, policy or approach on this issue.
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn
Our poll suggests that Jeremy Corbyn, who will be standing as an independent in Islington North – a constituency he has held since 1983 – may be able to beat the Labour candidate and retain his seat; with 35 per cent of Londoners saying that they would either ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ vote for Corbyn if he was standing in their constituency.
With YouGov’s most recent MRP saying that Islington North is ‘Leaning Labour’, with a projected vote share of 41 per cent for the Labour candidate and 36 per cent for ‘other’ candidates (with almost all of this likely being attributed to Corbyn), this seat will certainly be ‘one to watch’ on election night.
Turning to look at another key figure in the politics of London, Boris Johnson, we find that 31 per cent of Londoners believe Rishi Sunak either ‘probably should’ or ‘definitely should’ bring back Johnson to help campaign for the Conservatives in the lead up to the general election, while 57 per cent of Londoners believe he either ‘probably should not’ or ‘definitely should not’.
Interestingly, nearly a fifth (18 per cent) of Londoners say they would be more likely to vote for the Conservatives on July 4th if the former Prime Minister (Boris Johnson) was campaigning for the Conservative Party. This compares to 39 per cent of Londoners who say this would not affect their likelihood of voting Conservative, another 39 per cent of Londoners who say this would make them less likely to vote Conservative and 4 per cent who don’t know how this would affect their likelihood of doing so.
This figure increases to a third among 2019 Conservative voters in London, of whom 34 per cent say they would be more likely to vote for the Conservatives at the upcoming general election if Boris Johnson was campaigning for the party.
14 per cent of the Londoners who say they would vote Labour if there was a general election tomorrow, 15 per cent of those who say they would vote Liberal Democrat, and 18 per cent of those who say they would vote for another party, also say they would be more likely to vote Conservative on July 4th if Boris Johnson was campaigning for the Conservatives.
It should be noted, however, that 46 per cent of the Londoners who say they would vote Labour if there was a general election tomorrow, 57 per cent of those who say they would vote Liberal Democrat, and 28 per cent of those who say they would vote for another party, say they would be less likely to vote Conservative on July 4th if Boris Johnson was campaigning for the party.
While our poll suggests that the Conservatives might see a ‘Boris boost’ in their vote share in London if Johnson were to campaign for the party – potentially drawing back some of the voters which have moved away from the party since 2019 – enlisting his help could be a risky strategy given that just under a fifth of those Londoners (19 per cent) who say they currently intend to vote Conservative say they would be less likely to do so if he was involved in the campaign.
Savanta interviewed 1,022 adults aged 18+ in London online between 10th and 18th June 2024. Data were weighted to be representative of London adults by age, gender, region, ethnicity, social grade, 2019 General Election vote and 2024 London Mayoral vote.
Full data tables are available at: Polling London Data, June 2024 - conducted by Savanta [XLS 643KB]